How will the market change?

[RockyR]

Sorry I'm a bit late to this one. I'll throw in my $.02...

Well, I've been interacting on this forum for almost 7 years now, and "way back then" we were all just so sure that "kilts" were going to be the Big Thing and that all kinds of guys were going to be wearing them, and Carhart and Levi Strauss would be marketing kilts, yadda yadda yadda. The thought was that they'd soon be made offshore by cheap labor and the price would come down to very roughly what a pair of pants costs.

Hasnt' happened. The contemporary kilt market remains dominated by the Utilikilt, and it seems to be that the "fashion buzz" of "kilts" has kind of come and gone. I see no more kilts around campus here on The Farm than I ever did...which is for all intents and purposes, none. It's been a *very* long time since I've seen another kilt downtown.

With that in mind, I'm making some "statements" which can be up for discussion. I'm interested in what you all think.

1.) The contemporary kilt market is dominated by Utilikilt, and the entire rest of the contemporary market is made up of cottage industry or small businesses which employ at most, about 4-5 people.

I don't think many of us truly believe kilts will be 'mainstream' and that's OK. We may WANT it to be (if for no other reason than to give consumers easier choices of when / where / how much to spend for a kilt). With becoming mainstream comes the threat (for lack of a better term) of being a fad. With fads comes the inevitable drop off and crash. That's not what I want for the industry.

My prediction:

2.) Within 5 years, Utilikilt will have tried to go "public"...meaning finding an outside buyer/investor or selling public stock. To cut costs, cut the price to the consumer and increase the profit margin, they will offshore their production. The price of their kilts will in fact come down, in fact WAY down, but essentially no more people will buy them, than have already done so, and the company will either fold or go back to being a small business employing <10 people.

I completely disagree. I don't think they'll ever go 'public' (in a stock market sense) b/c the company is just too small to do so. They'd have to be moving over a hundred thousand units each year to think about going public. The scale just isn't there. The risk (to potential investors) on a potential 'fad' type business (that's how they'd view it) isn't worth the potential reward.

Likewise, I don't think UK would ever go off shore for production. That's been the core of their company mentality and I don't think they'd change that unless they sold the business. It would alienate many of their customers. I think they'd cut other costs / corners before doing that. I don't think Steve would ever sell the business. He has too much fun.

The rest of the contemporary kilt market will be made up of other small businesses spread around the country, doing approximately the same amount of work that they're doing now.


When I mean contemporary kilt, I mean non-tartan models like Utilikilts, Amerikilts, R-Kilts, Freedom kilts (non-tartan models) , the X Kilt, NeoKilt and so on.

I agree. There will always be a niche for artisans for people willing to pay for bespoke work.

Whoah!!! double whoah....

When did THAT model hit? That's GOT to be made offshore.

That kilt, right there is a total Game-changer.

I don't think that's a "game changer" at all. I've seen the same exact 'utility model' for sale from several different Pakistani kilt retailers. Prices range from $50 to $100 for basically the same product. Will it hurt the contemporary market? Yes, in the same way the Pakistani tartan kilts hurt the traditional market. However, people will still seek out quality (which these aren't IMHO) and will look to bespoke makers like Rkilts, Freedom Kilts, etc. They'll also look to "trusted name brands" like Utilikilts b/c they know what they're getting (UK's have been consistent in quality over the years which is the hallmark of a good business).


Also, the cost of kilts was brought up. Someone mentioned that they won't be "main stream" until they're under $50. Here are the issues with that.

1. The amount of cloth needed to make a Utilikilt is probably 3 to 4 times the amount of cloth needed to make the same sized pair of jeans. that's 3 to 4 times the material cost.

2. The amount of LABOR required to make a Utility Kilt, EVEN WITH "production line" processes, is probably 3 or 4 times the length of time than a pair of jeans.

3. The pockets alone are a good bit more involved. Look at the side pockets (with multiple compartments) on a Utility Kilt. Those aren't 30 second pockets... they probably take a 4 to 5 times the labor of a flat 'patch style' pocket.

With keeping the above thoughts in mind, wouldn't it make sense for a Utility style kilt to cost, even WITH the same facility and production capabilities of a Levis Strauss or Lee Jeans, 3 to 4 times the cost of a pair of jeans? Assuming no one is getting RICH off of making Utility style kilts, I don't think the numbers are far from the truth. Not saying that would help the case for "mass appeal", but it would be understandable.