How will the market change?

[mookien]

Alan: Part of your observations could be explained (in the USA) by the burst of the housing bubble in 2006 followed by the continuing deep recession. Folks whose houses have been foreclosed, or are underwater, or are un(der)-employed are not apt to spend a lot of time and money on fashion trends of any kind. This phenomenon is only exacerbated amongst the younger generation from whom fashion trends often arise.

John

[Panache]

Alan,

My perception, as someone who walks all the booths at the games and often chats with the vendors, is that the modern/contemporary kilt has been assimilated into the inventories of most mass produced kilt vendors and even custom kilt makers like William Glen and Son will have a version on hand. They aren't a big deal fashion wise anymore, they are a niche item that most kilt vendors have seen as worth carrying but not going too deep with for inventory. Contemporary/modern kilts appeal to non traditional kilt wearers for their comfort and unique look as well as traditional kilt wearers who like a "jeans" option. The group of kilted traditionalists that are outraged at Utilikilts and such in the United States are growing smaller.

In a nutshell, Contemporary/Modern kilts just didn't make the big time, but they didn't fade out either. They found a little fashion niche in the corner of the larger kilt industry.

As for Utilikilts, though they have the most name brand recognition, I suspect they might be running into some serious problems in the near future. With a good number of cheaper options for mass produced imported "utility" kilts available they find their marketshare shrinking on the low priced spectrum end, and with companies like R Kilts and such that make true custom utility kilts for not much more than what they charge for their standard products they find themselves losing their marketshare on the high end as well.

So I do agree that to remain competitive they will likely import in the future to stay competitive.

Cheers

Jamie

[McElmurry]

With the DIYers putting out such nice kilts it has got to be eating into the Utilikilt style market. We see at least a post a week of a new X-kilt. I know several people who have purchased Utilikilts at a festival, fair, or games and the kilts are hanging in their closet. I think there is a “been there done that effect” with that style of kilt.

Also, it takes no commitment to buy a Utilikilt. If you have put some serious thought into selecting a tartan or are now on your third X-kilt you have some personal commitment to the lifestyle. You look for opportunities to wear your kilt and are more likely to make or acquire more kilts.

I will also propose kilt wearing is a young mans and middle age/retired man’s phenomenon with less action in the 25 to 45 age group where folks are concentrating on careers and families. So Utilikilt owners may go dormant for 20 years or so instead of buying a new kilt every few years.

Just a few thoughts, generalizations all.

[Alan H]

I well remember my sticker shock when, eight years ago, I walked into a Utilikilts booth after seeing Mike McMullen of Tempest, wearing one on stage. At the time I thought..."I don't know about those plaid things, but I could wear a black kilt like Mike's". Then I saw the price. It was my reaction to that price that sent me hunting online to less expensive alternatives, and that, actually is when I joined X Marks.

$175 is not an unreasonable price for the work that goes into making a "production" contemporary kilt, made in the USA. But as we've all noted a million times, until the price gets down to something vaguely comparable to a pair of casual pants, a whole, whole lot of guys will never buy one. To do that, the economies of scale come into play. The company has to buy hundreds to thousands of bolts of material from China and have it sewn up by the tens of thousands in a third world country, for the end product to land on a shelf in the USA at $50.

Marketing studies and clothing trends have to prove to a potential company that they can make money on this. Who are the possible companies? Dickies...Carhart... Columbia...Patagonia... North Face....companies like that. It's been 7-8 years and nobody has made the move. At this point, I don't think that any company WILL make the move.

Chicken and egg, eh?

I looked into buying a couple of bolts of cloth from China and having kilts made in El Salvador a few years ago. Upshot was, with the scale of *hundreds* of units that I might have done, not *tens of thousands* I couldn't significantly beat UK's prices. I was pretty thorough in my research, too. I'm not Patagonia,and neither is Utilikilt. So.... Here's my guess.

We will never see the $50 contemporary kilt..... At least not in the next 10 years.

I used to think that McElmurrys idea, that DIY was such a tiny drop it the bucket that it had no effect. I'm slowly changing my mind. The other day I did a google search on "X-Kilt" (I've done this before) and I'm astounded at how many sites have links to the manual. I'm starting to think that the number of X Kilts made by people NOT on X Marks significantly outnumbers the ones from X Marks. The last time I added it up, about 3+ years ago, over 200 X Kilts had been made by X Markers. That number is probably up to 350 or more, now. I'm guessing that triple that number have been made by people who never visited X Marks for any reason but to find the link. That's 1,000+ kilts.

Whoah. Believe me, when I wrote the manual I had NO idea this was going to happen. Also, that's just X Kilts. How about the umpty-ump other, non-X-kilt DIY kilts that have been made?

But here's the thing....even with the X kilt, that's more or less, vaguely 1,000+ kilts that Utilikilt didn't sell in the past 5 years. That's no joke. So in fact I think that maybe McElmurry might be right, that the DIY market for kilts has impacted the overall market, because the overall market is so small. You can be flippin' sure that the overwhelming majority of the people who made kilts would never in a million years attempt to make a pair of pants.

[Alan H]

Another thought....

I suspect that the number of "new" kilt wearers for the contemporary product is going to seriously shrink. That means that most customers will be repeat customers. The days of some guy finding a booth at a street fair, dropping his trousers and walking out with a Utilikilt.....which then will hang in his closet until next year when he goes to the same street fair.....is fading fast. The novelty is wearing off, the "fashion buzz" is over and the flippin' things cost a lot. As we've already seen, there aren't a whole lot of significantly less expensive alternatives, outside the "tartan" market....and a lot of guys won't wear "tartan".

Two things will happen....

1.)those people who really love kilts will discover that paying more for a custom job from R Kilts or Freedom Kilts is totally worth the money, and will go that way.

2.) Utilikilts are pretty well made-products. They don't fall apart. That's one reason why they cost so much. But that also means that an awful lot of their customers don't buy more than one or two. I suspect that the OVERWHELMING majority of UK owners are once-a-year-at-the-fair wearers, and the rest of the time, they stay in the closet. So in addition to sales to "new" customers, sales to "repeat" customers, to replace worn-out kilts will be minimal.

And that leaves them in a bind. If you make a quality product, people like it and are happy with it and they don't buy another one. This is why Microsoft introduces a new Operating System every four years. They NEED you to buy it, to stay in business.

[Tobus]

We will never see the $50 contemporary kilt..... At least not in the next 10 years.

Oh no?

[James Hood]

Fascinating thread, thank you for your contributions.

In this observation, the last truly enormous "clothing revolution" was when blue cotton denim farm-ranch trousers went from hipster-punk (James Dean and Marlon Brando in 1955) to Hippie (with bell bottoms in 1969) to today's nauseatingly boring omnipresent unisex world-wear.

Do kilts "have what it takes" to make even a tiny fraction of that progression? Again in this opinion, they are seen by the vast lowing hordes as (tartan) ethnic-Scottish and pipe band and at very best, rare (modern, not prolific) "rebellious youth" garb.

Some places, such as Chicago are hideously-dreadfullydespicably traditional in clothing. Given the millions upon millions upon millions huge population of this vast megopolis, one might expect to see...and be disappointed by not...more diversity in dress.

[Alan H]

Oh no?

Whoah!!! double whoah....

When did THAT model hit? That's GOT to be made offshore.

That kilt, right there is a total Game-changer.

[O'Callaghan]

We will never see the $50 contemporary kilt..... At least not in the next 10 years.

Kiltmart has them for $70 right now. I have my eye on getting a green one.

(ETA: And I read just a couple of posts further down that Tobus linked to where UT Kilts does indeed have them for $50. All the same, they are like 99% of cargo kilt vendors and offer olive green but not a true green. Kiltmart does have a proper shade of green, as does Tartanista, but the latter cost more than at Kiltmart. Why green? For Ireland, of course.)

[Geoff Withnell]

And let us not forget the surprise 5.11 Tactical had with their Tactical kilt April Fool's joke last year, when they ended up selling almost 4000 of them. I suspect some enterprising venture capitalist may note an underserved market.

Kiltmart has them for $70 right now. I have my eye on getting a green one.

(ETA: And I read just a couple of posts further down that Tobus linked to where UT Kilts does indeed have them for $50. All the same, they are like 99% of cargo kilt vendors and offer olive green but not a true green. Kiltmart does have a proper shade of green, as does Tartanista, but the latter cost more than at Kiltmart. Why green? For Ireland, of course.)