Falling markets and the effect/affect to the kilt.

[Big Homestead]

Hey guys,

Just wondering if the recent uprise in kilts is going to come to a close in the near future, or if you think it will.
Reasons being,
Falling economy in Canada and the US
The fall of the dollar
blah blah blah.

I know many people will be ok if a recession hits, but am wondering how the kilt will do? I like that more people are wearing them. I even seen a dude wearing a sarong (sp?) at a sushi house today. Let the kilt live I say. How do you gents of greater experience see the kilt living in the next year or 3?

Cheers

[Pleater]

Not a gent - but I have been making clothes for 50 years - I started by dressing my dolls, and one of them sits on the bookcase even now.

The change in the economy might actually benefit the wearer of quality garments as the attitude to garments which are bought and worn for a few months then discarded, changes.

There might even be a reduction in the availability of such garments as the Tiger economies need to grow just to survive. A figure of 8 percentage points of growth per annum seems to be the survival level, and below that an implosion would begin, faster or slower depending on how far below 8 the level of production falls.

Just as the family recently fallen on hard times eats better as the freezer is being emptied of all the more expensive items being kept for special occasions, as cheaper clothes wear out and are not replaced, kilts might become more common out on the streets as they become the last smart thing on the wardrobe rail.

Also, if people are unemployed or on a short working week they might decide to try kilt making to pass the time, and take their minds off their problems. There might also be the need to stand out, a hope that 'the one in the kilt' might get someone's attention.

There was a program on TV recently about the advertising man - David Ogilvy who would wear a kilt to stand out from the crowd and be memorable.

Although buying kilts might be less common, the same pressure to economise might bring them out of the closet.

Anne the Pleater

[McMurdo]

I would have to say as the kilt has survived to this day, that it will continue, however I do believe that most people will use it for special occasions only, as is the norm now many people will have one kilt, or perhaps rent one when it is needed. I will continue to wear mine.

[Jack Daw]

Predicting such is like predicting the direction of the stock market and the currency exchange rate - it really can't be done. All I can tell you is that when I was in Scotland just 4 months ago, the exchange rate was around $1.98/BP and today it's $1.48. Looks like NOW is a good time to buy a kilt (compared to 4 months ago)!

[Ian.MacAllan]

In the 1930's we were told that the way to "bring the country out" of the Depression was to buy apples; in the 1950's, to buy cars; and now, to buy houses. "Whenever history repeats itself, the price goes up."

I think we are already seeing a little softening in the price of quality kilts, mostly through specials on wool tartan. I hope this will benefit quality kiltmakers, not harm them. Theirs is a particularly admirable skill.

.

[MacMillan of Rathdown]

While kilts may be cheaper for those outside the UK, the cost hasn't dropped within the UK-- the pound is still a pound. What may happen is a shrinking of the domestic (ie: UK) kilt market with the result that cheap kilts will be hit the hardest, while the established quality makers will suffer the least.

So when is the best time to buy a kilt? Just as soon as you have the money to do so. Despite whatever fluctuations the economy may take one thing is certain. Kilts were cheaper ten years ago than they are today, and in ten years time they will cost even more.

[Larry124]

My local brick and mortar (non-chain) guitar shop is going out of business at the end of the year.

After 54 years.

Reasons likely include consumer disposable discretionary income or credit, store rent (including local government and schools property taxes), heating oil and other utility costs, state sales tax, and Internet sales. And perhaps the acquisition and maintenance costs of on-hand inventory.

Also, baby-boomer guitar players are ageing, and the succeeding generations just do not include as many guitar players.

The difference (I hope) with the kilt is that the younger generation might increasingly introduce themselves to kilts via contemporary and economy kilts and eventually discover more traditional kilts. The Internet may be good for this process because I don’t think that a kilt shop in every town is likely to happen.

The unknown is what will happen in the near and middle future to the market for high-end clothing of all types.

Political leaders (of all persuasions) routinely make supportive economic policy and tax policy and trade policy promises to “Main Street” and to “Small Business”.
And to consumers.
We’ll see. Or not.

[ThistleDown]

I would have to say as the kilt has survived to this day, that it will continue, however I do believe that most people will use it for special occasions only, as is the norm now many people will have one kilt, or perhaps rent one when it is needed. I will continue to wear mine.

I agree with Glen. Over the next few years there may be a downturn in the Kollection of kilts, but those of us who wear them now will continue to do so for three reasons: we have them, we have long worn them, and we are comfortable in them. Oh, and a fourth: for some of us there isn't much in the way of alternative, is there? Except the purchase of a short-lived new pair of pants, which we won't have to do because what we have now will last the rest of....

[ThistleDown]

Predicting such is like predicting the direction of the stock market and the currency exchange rate - it really can't be done. All I can tell you is that when I was in Scotland just 4 months ago, the exchange rate was around $1.98/BP and today it's $1.48. Looks like NOW is a good time to buy a kilt (compared to 4 months ago)!

I'm really hesitant to say this because I split my life between Scotland and Canada, but I have to say: buy the tartan fabric in Scotland and have your kilt made by the best kilt-maker you can find in your own country.

In other words, buy the highest quality raw material and retain talented craftspeople to make your kilt. The result will be support for the best mills in Scotland (and a guarantee of fine fabric for the future), and local artesans will soon have apprentices for our kilts yet to come.

[Nanook]

While kilts may be cheaper for those outside the UK, the cost hasn't dropped within the UK-- the pound is still a pound.

The dollar is high not due to confidence is the U.S. economy or fiscal stability but due to demand for dollars to feed losses on margin positions. Current strategy to tackle the crisis will lead to an intended significant depreciation of the U.S. dollar against all major currencies. Political pressures, however, too in the EUROzone should act to try to downwardly realign the EURO as well but probably with a higher level of stability and at a level higher against the U.S. Dollar than we are currently seeing. Most analysts think that the dollars current strength is a "last gasp" before its renewed fall. What is clear among all the uncertainty is that heavy deficit spending--- a lot of it unproductive but politically unavoidable (Citicorp, GM etc.)--- and inflation are on the agenda.

What may happen is a shrinking of the domestic (ie: UK) kilt market with the result that cheap kilts will be hit the hardest,

I don't agree. During economic downturns fashion markets move in both conservative and price sensitive circles. Highland dress tends to be perceived by the market as neither conservative nor inexpensive but as a fashion luxury. The 1930s, for example, saw a shift to practical day clothing. Men's clothing turned to more simple less tailored cuts with wide shoulders. The brightly patterned knitwear that was so popular in the 1920s fell out of favour to more subtle colours such as drab browns, grays and light blues. Trousers got cuffs and gray flannel became extremely popular.

Highland Dress, on the other hand, is a bit dandyish.

Contrary to what a lot of thoughtless people seem to believe, dandyism is not even an excessive delight in clothes and material elegance. For the perfect dandy, these things are no more than the symbol of the aristocratic superiority of his mind. Thus, in his eyes, enamored as he is above all of distinction, perfection in dress consists in absolute simplicity, which is, indeed, the best way of being distinguished. What then can this passion be, which has crystallized into a doctrine, and has formed a number of outstanding devotees, this unwritten code that has molded so proud a brotherhood? It is, above all, the burning desire to create a personal form of originality, within the external limits of social conventions. It is a kind of cult of the ego which can still survive the pursuit of that form of happiness to be found in others, in woman for example; which can even survive what are called illusions. It is the pleasure of causing surprise in others, and the proud satisfaction of never showing any oneself. A dandy may be blasé, he may even suffer pain, but in the latter case he will keep smiling, like the Spartan under the bite of the fox.
....
Fastidious, unbelievables, beaux, lions or dandies: whichever label these men claim for themselves, one and all stem from the same origin, all share the same characteristic of opposition and revolt; all are representatives of what is best in human pride, of that need, which is too rare in the modern generation, to combat and destroy triviality.

Dandyism to quote Baudelaire again "appears especially in those periods of transition when democracy has not yet become all-powerful, and when aristocracy is only partially weakened and discredited".

while the established quality makers will suffer the least.

Many have already been beheaded and most are aging. Downturns in the economy have tended to be poison to the Scottish textile industry.

Kilts were cheaper ten years ago than they are today,

Not really. There are a lot of cut price tartans from closed mills, closed factories, obsoleted army stores, cheaper more automated production and Asian knock-offs flowing into cheaper kilts. Most kilts today have some bits done on machines and many of the "kilt companies" on the high street have adopted much more rational (assembly line) techniques. That all said a lot of Highland fashion companies and public subsidized projects have closed their doors since 2000.